Opinion: Are We Seeing The First Signs Of A Musk-Trump Rift?

Berserk bullies generally halt when someone stands up to them. That is what is happening to America's President of seven weeks, Donald Trump. His tirade against friends, allies and neighbours initially caught them off guard. It took them some time to collect themselves, although they tried to mollify him, promising some concessions and offers to talk. That only encouraged Trump to intensify his annexation threats and impose heavy tariffs—25% on neighbours Canada and Mexico. He has also reportedly mulled cutting out Canada from the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. 

That only served to hurt Canada's national pride, and a wave of patriotism has washed over the country, which is also headed to federal elections. Canadian foreign minister Melanie Joly said that to Christiane Amanpour of CNN in so many words: “That's enough. Canadians have had enough. We are a strong country. We will defend our sovereignty, we will defend our jobs. We will defend our way of living.” 

Canada has begun boycotting American products. Liquor vends in Ontario removed Kentucky whiskies and Californian wines after state premier Doug Ford ordered them out. Ford also imposed a 25% tariff on electricity exports to the US. A pizza chain has dropped Costco as a supplier. Alberta premier Danielle Smith also announced hard-hitting tariffs on US products and an outright ban on American liquor. Several retail outlets now sport Buy Canadian tags. 

Trump Backs Off?

Lo and behold, Trump hit pause, suspending the tariffs by a month and giving bilateral discussions a chance. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Fox TV that the administration is trying to hammer out a deal with Canada and Mexico to “work something out”. 

Trump's trade tariff strategy is said to be a multi-purpose instrument. In some cases, such as India, it is intended to open up the market for American companies. In others, such as Canada and Mexico, it is about shutting out competition as well as unproven pet peeves, such as loose regulation of cross-border drug trafficking. In the case of China, tariffs are meant to both strangle competition as well as ensure national security objectives. 

DOGE Troubles

The President's other major initiative, the Elon Musk-led DOGE or Department Of Government Efficiency, has a much bigger and longer-term objective, reengineering multiple institutions to fit into a libertarian framework. That too is not going well. After Musk and his marauding troops went in with a battering ram and broke things, resistance is coming up, some of it from within. One of the first directions from Kash Patel after taking charge as the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation was to tell staff to ignore orders from DOGE. 

Although an early legal attempt by 14 states to block DOGE—whose role is technically restricted to advisory—from accessing information systems failed in a federal court, several other challenges that rely on a privacy law are pending. A federal judge also temporarily stopped DOGE's access to government payment systems. 

Trump appears to be unhappy about the heat DOGE is getting even as there is nothing to show except chaos. He held a review meeting on Wednesday and promised to hold it every two weeks until they get the winnowing right. “As the secretaries learn about, and understand, the people working for the various departments, they can be very precise as to who will remain, and who will go. We say the ‘scalpel' rather than the ‘hatchet',” he posted on Truth Social. Financial Times quoted him telling reporters that he did not want good people to go in big indiscriminate cuts. “I want the cabinet members to go first, keep all the people you want, everybody that you need.” 

First Hint Of Tensions?

This is the first occasion where a crack seems to have emerged between Trump and Musk, even though there have been embarrassing moments earlier. One of them was when Musk's four-year-old son, X, tramped around the Oval Office in full media glare as his father and the President answered journalists' queries. In a joint interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity, Trump and Musk said they were aware of gossip about the latter's power and jibes that the President was a mere figurehead. They dismissed them as amateur attempts to drive a wedge between them. 

Wednesday's review of DOGE activities, however, suggests for the first time that Trump's blind faith in Musk might be shaken and that he is planning to have some sort of personal oversight. Perhaps Musk rubbed too many people in the Trump team on the wrong side. Vivek Ramaswamy likely read the writing on the wall when he made an early honourable exit. The first person to exit from his team prematurely in Trump's first term as President was National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, for his contacts with Russia. Flynn was of a similar disposition as Musk: aggressive and imperious. The next to be fired was FBI Director James Comey, followed by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and then Secretary of Defense James Mattis. All of them were, in one way or another, let go of over issues related to Russia. Comey was fired for his (mis)handling of the investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails. Although differences were building up, Tillerson's departure came immediately after he spoke against Russian spies reportedly poisoning a defector and his daughter in Salisbury, England. Mattis left after disagreeing with Trump on withdrawing American troops from Syria, where Russia was gaining the upper hand.

Petulant Leaders

After a whirlwind seven weeks, during which Trump has managed to wreck relationships and destabilise long-standing institutions, the stock-taking might have begun. This is when leaders like Trump become impatient: when they do not see the expected results. The next reaction would likely be petulance. A petulant bully looks for targets to pick on. That's what Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky faced. Tiny Panama could be next.

He may even pick on India, which has tried to stay on Trump's right side even though it did not help much with tariffs. India has chosen to rely on its political leaders' and diplomats' persuasive powers behind closed doors rather than publicly decrying Trump's actions. Foreign minister S. Jaishankar has, in fact, allayed Trump's fears of India, as a member of the BRICS grouping, in any way trying to undermine the US dollar. But it's always better to keep your fingers crossed.

(Dinesh Narayanan is a Delhi-based journalist and author of 'The RSS And The Making Of The Deep Nation'.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author