Opinion: Can India And China Ever Really 'Dance' Together?

Is the dragon-elephant dance desirable for India?

Or, will it turn into danse macabre?

It is difficult to gauge what China truly wants from and for India. With all its tiger diplomats and increasingly aggressive talk, China remains one of the most complex countries in terms of decoding diplomacy. While foreign minister Wang Yi wants “a cooperative partnership between the dragon and the elephant”, China's new defence budget for 2025-26 stands at $249 billion.

Wu Qian, the spokesperson for the defence ministry, says, “The Chinese military faces tough challenges in safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity.” After Russia and Mongolia, China shares its third longest land border with India, which is 3,380 kilometres in length. And this border hasn't been China's quietest.

Signals From China

With a 7.2% increase in its annual defence budget—and its public justification—China has sent out important signals, the most significant one being to the United States. Miffed with the US selling arms to Taiwan, Wu stated, “Several pieces of US weaponry will not alter the inevitable demise of Taiwan independence.” After the declaration of retaliatory tariffs on the US, which have come into effect, this statement is in sync with Beijing's hard stand.

A similar firm stance was displayed during the Line of Actual Control (LAC) conflict with India, which reached some form of resolution only late last year. Beijing did not soften on the Depsang and Demchok regions of Ladakh, the site of bloody clashes between the two militaries in 2020.

Despite the personalised public diplomacy of PM Modi and President Xi Jinping's summits, clashes along the LAC severely dented India-China relations. The four-year-long freeze in bilateral ties should have been a learning experience. The biggest lesson being, Beijing doesn't blink. It can afford not to.

India Should Remain Cautious 

It is, therefore, important for India to tread carefully. The Chinese foreign minister is correct when he says that Beijing and New Delhi  “should work with each other rather than guard against each other”. Beijing, though, sits more comfortably at the guard posts and to match its presence, New Delhi needs to bleed resources. As against China's Rs 21.9 lakh crore, India's 2025-26 defence budget sits at Rs 6.81 lakh crore. India's border infrastructure pales against that of China. This asymmetry is a hard reality that nobody in the government can afford to ignore or overlook. Within the milieu of a global economic slowdown, the choice of ramping up military spending at the cost of other sectors—for money is always limited—doesn't come easy.

China keeps insisting that India is not a significant security threat. Yet, reportedly, it has significantly amped up its surveillance capabilities over India. A new Large Phased Array Radar (LPAR) with a range of over 5,000 km to track India's missile tests is said to have been deployed in Yunnan province near the Myanmar border. Not only this, Chinese military commanders have been calling for military preparedness of the People's Liberation Army citing, “military tensions on multiple fronts, the border with India and the Taiwan Strait".

It gives credence to India's Army Chief's latest statement, “The two-front threat is a reality.” China certainly presents a security concern for India. But Beijing also reiterates that border issues should not tarnish overall bilateral relations with India. 

So, what should we do?

'Neighbourhood First'

There are no simple solutions, but the Indian government's stated policy of putting “neighbourhood first” may act as a guiding principle. Amidst a fierce, albeit zero-sum trade war with the US, China aims to consolidate its economic stature within and beyond the Global South. How India can align its own goals with those of its stronger neighbour demands an unsentimental look at our ambition-ability equation.

The growing deficit in India-China bilateral trade also offers insights. While India exports raw materials like castor oil, iron ore, Light naphtha, p-xylene, shrimps, etc., to China, we import machinery and electronics (including crucial parts) from them. Not just the volume but also the nature of this deficit should concern us before making any strategic decision about China. A move away from importing goods from China towards importing capital from there may work in the short term. India can look at expanding its cross-sector infrastructure capabilities by inviting more Chinese FDI.

India's best bet, currently, is to align its security and economic goals with China's aim of “opposing hegemonism and power politics”. This is neither easy nor risk-free. The success of India's diplomatic acumen will rest on how we take advantage of what Wang Yi recently stated: “China stands ready to work with India”. 

Let's make China work with and for India. 

(The author is a Delhi-based author and academic.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author